This is always a very interesting prediction.

India batting first scored an average of 271 and 256 when batting second in 2007. Whereas Sri Lanka when batting first scored an average of 254 and 241 when they batted second.

Going by this, would India always win, Simple?

No!

The interesting fact is their bowling. Sri Lanka opposition is likely to be 213 all out on an average. Whereas Indian opposition scores 266 for 6.

India’s weak point is it’s bowling whereas Sri Lanka’s strong point is it’s bowling. Sri Lankans are the most stingy bowlers and to cap it, they take wickets as well.

So, it means that if you average the bowling and batting performances the scores could be like this:

Sri Lanka bats first, it is more likely to win. The likely score bands:

Sri Lanka: 260/261 (based on the average score by Sri Lanka batting first in an away series in 2007, and the average score based on the players playing in this match.)

India: 235/284 (based on the average score by india batting second in 2007 in an away series, and the average score based on the players playing in this match. Actually with Yuvraj not playing the average scores may go down by another 6-10 runs)

60% lieklihood that Sri Lanka may win by a margin of 10-25 runs, or 40% likely India can win by about 3-5 wickets

If India bats first, it has a 70% chance of victory. The likely score bands:

India: 242/284 (based on the average score by india batting first in 2007 in an away series, and the average score based on the players playing in this match. Actually with Yuvraj not playing the average scores may go down by another 6-10 runs)
Sri Lanka: 254/261 (based on the average score by Sri Lanka batting second in an away series in 2007, and the average score based on the players playing in this match.)

70% likelihood that India may win by 20-30 runs, else 30% likely Sri Lanka may win by 4-6 wickets.

So overall prediction is 55% India and 45% Sri Lanka

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If Australia bats first, it is most likely to win. The likely score bands:

Australia: 273/294 (based on the average score by Australia batting first in a home series in 2007, and the average score based on the players playing in this match. If Hopes is played, Australia are likely to score an extra 15-20 runs)

India: 256/264 (based on the average score by india batting second in 2007 in an away series, and the average score based on the players playing in this match. Actually with Yuvraj not playing the average scores may go down by another 6-10 runs)

Australia may win by a margin of 10-40 runs. But if Hopes plays and Yuvraj doesn’t play, the margin may increase by another 25 runs.

If India bats first, it has a 55% chance of victory. The likely score bands:

India: 264/271 (based on the average score by india batting first in 2007 in an away series, and the average score based on the players playing in this match. Actually with Yuvraj not playing the average scores may go down by another 6-10 runs)
Australia: 260/273 (based on the average score by Australia batting second in a home series in 2007, and the average score based on the players playing in this match. If Hopes is played, Australia are likely to score an extra 15-20 runs)

India may win by 5-10 runs, else Australia may win by 4-6 wickets. But if Hopes plays and Yuvraj doesn’t play, the margin may increase by another 25 runs, which means that the chance of India winning would be just about 25% and Australia may win by 5-7 wickets.

Another important fact:
Indian team’s score based on statistics of present team is 256 for 9 (without Yuvraj), and they are likely to restrict an average opposition to 266 for 7. So the present team is likely to win 40% of matches they play
Australian team’s score based on statistics of present team is 296 for 5 (with Hopes), and they are likely to restrict an average opposition to 243 for 9. So the present team is likely to win 80% of the matches they play.

This is solely based on statistical analysis of the author and has no derivation from any existing article or piece of work.

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Ricky Ponting recently said,”Test Cricket is a test of Physical and Mental Toughness”. He is very right. Even if you don’t like it, it is the stage test cricket is now at. So, if you want to win a game, you need to strategize the downfall of 20 wickets. Putting aside unfair means used by Douglas Jardine (Bodyline), John Lever (Vaseline), or unethical means like the Martin Snedden Catch of Greg Chappel or the Trevor Chappel ball of century (underhand bowl), you have to agree that one batsman bats twice -so it is easier to defeat him mentally than on the wicket. And that’s the way Australians have learnt to play the game. India have not been able to get this knack (surprisingly most of the teams around the world are coached by Australian Coaches but this is one thing I feel they have held back).

How do you strategize?
- you list down each batsman’s weakness
- you also list down their strengths
- then you hammer on weaknesses and don’t allow the person the balls which are his strengths
- you learn which rule can easily be broken by the opponent

If the batsmen is mentally weak (verbally aggressive) then you break him down on the field (people like Harbhajan and Sreesanth are sitting ducks). Either trap them into situations where they walk the thin line, by goading the person into responding (a thorough understanding of rules is required here so that you don’t overstep while prompting the opponent to overstep). This is actually easy game for trapping the immature. For trapping the mature, you have to start early.

Let us see some of the ways/ statements you get opponents:
If you know the team composition, then praise the first player likely to sit out (or depraise the ones in the team). Especially if this person is likely to be an easier catch. For Example,

“Yuvraj should be in the team”
“Virender Sehwag has the potential to win matches”
“Dravid is the most technically correct batsman”
“Harbhajan is unsuccessful on flat pitches”
“Muralidharan’s action is doubtful”

This way you’re entering the minds of selectors, captains, and public (this is also a big force in India). So more likely you can manipulate the team to serve you a combination you like.

Inside the match, early praise can also get you the man. Example, as soon as Yuvraj hits the first ball, if you say,”Wow, that was some shot”, you’re likely to goad Yuvraj into start hitting early.

Not that the opponents are immature, but subtle statements can surely make things flow the way you want them. Even unethical is OK like the Martin Snedden catch or recent Ricky Ponting catch or even the Trevor Chappel ball, as long as it is not illegal. Regular doubts raised at forums against Muralithran caught his ire and he refused to come to Australia for a season and the strategy worked successful in removing the most dangerous man in the opposition team.

The bottom line is that there is no point bowler trying to toil to get each wicket. Each person has a part to play and there’s a possible set of strategies for each person. So, all players can make the task easy for the bowler.

I just hope this article reaches Anil Kumble before the start of the 3rd match.

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