Sri Lanka has been playing cricket like chess. They have been playing upto potential on the field like some other teams, but you’d notice a scheming strategist behind their World Cup campaign. We’ve discussed their strategy earlier too and had always backed them to be the finalists.

In fact, New Zealand too copied them and kept out Styris and Oram out of their match against Australia - a wonderful copy - since if they were to meet up Australia again they’d have a different team than the one that lost to Australia in the Super 8 ensuring that there is no psychological advantage to the winning team.

Finally, Australia and Sri Lanka are in the finals. Full marks to both for a relentless campaign. If you see at both, there is a difference in the way they approach the matches. Australia approaches them in an office like fashion, playing to heir full potential every time. Here lies the difference. Sri Lanka plays a different game in crucial matches. Murali’s grin widens, as does his seriousness. Vaas and Malinga don’t give even little room in the first 10 overs. And this strategy has not been exposed to the Australian openers yet. Sri Lanka also tightens up the screws in the middle overs through Murali and Jayasuriya (who looks the easiest target to the batsmen between these tough bowlers and hence batsmen try to go for the kill here and wickets start falling). Sri Lanka and Australia are the only teams that don’t try to contain the score, their only aim is to get the team out.

It’s not about playing to potential, it’s more about not exposing your cards, especially the Joker (Lasitha Malinga in this case).

There are 2 theoretical possibilities:

1. The Joker plays to potential and wrecks the Australian batting line up
2. The Australian Team focuses on wrecking the Joker so much, that the other bowlers wreck the Team.

It’s not whether they may win or not, but it is in their best interest not to show their Joker, who incidentally is also their least undocumented and studied weapon. This may not work for weaker teams, but when you have Vaas and Murali in the attack, you can take these chances.

In comparison, Australia, is psychologically weaker in the spin department - with the exit of Shane Warne, the big match player. Hogg, who is kind of a similar unexposed/ undocumented weapon on their end, doesn’t exactly categorize as a “different” bowler in terms as Murali on Malinga would. And without the big stage exposure - I expect Jayasuriya (if McGrath doesn’t get him) to take him to the cleaners. It’s going to be an interesting battle nevertheless.

Onedayers.com has a different Ranking System than the ICC and am sure if you go by this, you’d be better off at predicting in the Twenty20 World Cup. I used the same system to predict the following:

It seeded Ireland at No. 6 before the world cup
It predicted Bangladesh bowling attack to be one of the best in the world cup (alas their batting didn’t come up to the same standards).
It also put Sri Lanka as the team to watch for before the World Cup if Jayasuriya maintains his form.
It predicted Jayasuriya as the man to watch for!

There were no guesses but it was this ranking system that was used.

Well, in the final match I’d put my money on Sri Lanka, since both teams have a successful set of bowlers and batsmen, but Sri Lanka have a huge variety in their bowling.

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Sri Lanka rested 3 bowlers, Lasitha Malinga (the find of the world cup), Chaminda Vaas (their deep throat) and Mutthaiah Muralitharan (the best spinner in the world cup) when they faced Australia in their league match. This strategy has been questioned by all and sundry. Basically this was a strategem (a gem of a strategy)

Malinga by the grace of an injury was to be rested. But Sri Lanka chose to go ahead and drop Murali and Vaas as well. Now this strategy allowed them the following liberties:

1. They could afford to save their bowlers from exposing to Australian batsmen at this stage. Australian batsmen as using the league stage to batter the confidence of the bowlers so that when they meet them in the Semi Finals or Finals, the bowlers may opt for defensive line.
2. They have the advantage if they win with this depleted line up, and still not have the psychological disadvantage even if they lose. This is an unusual situation.
3. Losing also ensured that Australia finish at the top of the league and Sri Lanka won’t have to face them in the Semi Finals. The probability of New Zealand finishing on top is low since Sri Lanka had beaten them earlier.
4. This allowed Sri Lanka’s Best Batsmen to have a feel of all Australian bowlers but denied them (australian batsmen) a complimentary opportunity (to face the Sri Lankan attack). Malinga being a mystery weapon Sri Lanka would not like to disclose the surprise spring and allow Ponting and Hayden to become comfortable with the sight of his unusual action.
5. This also allowed them (Sri Lanka) to blood their 12-13-14 so that if the need arise, they are not raw and would have already faced the best team in the World Cup. And this allowed the 3 bowlers to get crucial rest before the last 2 matches. In contrast Australia has not been able to give sufficient opportunity to their bench to warm up.

In the end all other matches are now useless, and any team that can win the last 2 matches is the World Champion. And Sri Lanka is trying to save the best for the last.

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Bangladesh whacked South Africa, but the job was not accomplished in the manner Australia deceminates the opponents nowadays, but in the manner of a Chess Player, breaking down the opponent’s strategy part by part, till there is no rescue.

The signs were ominous in the manner in which they posted a 250 (the way Mortaza picked up the scoring rate gave an adrenalin boost to Ashraful, who then charged down at the South Africa bowlers especially at Ntini and Langevelt, since they had the bowlers but needed a score to bowl to. And the first time their batsmen gave them the score, the Bangladesh bowlers came up to the task. Rafique was always dreaded and showed his calibre, but Rasel was a find in the real sense. Abdur Razzak and Saqibul bowled to their potential on paper. Kallis now has company! We have one more all-rounder to entertain us in the coming years. Not many may know that Saqi (Saqibul Hassan) is already near the Top on the ICC Top Batsmen charts. He was already declared a Valuable Player in Vineet Cricket Player’s Rankings released before the world cup. And as predicted in this website, Bangladesh bowling had to be watched out for, as well as Jayasuriya is the man of the moment..

Well, Bangladesh has kept the promise they showed on paper, unlike many of their greater counter parts. The entry of Bangladesh on the scene adds to the growing presence of Asia in cricket, and adds to the woes of some teams. As Bangaldesh walks the hallowed portals of Super 8, they are most likely to be eliminated, but their love affair with cricket is not likely to be forgotten by most of the teams.

We must also remember that Bangladesh has lost only 3 matches so far in this tournament, to 3 of the 4 top teams. They are still to meet England, West Indies and Ireland, and would be in if they beat all 3! They also stand a good chance if they beat 2 of these. So watch out for some fireworks - the tournament is still alive!!

Well Ricky Ponting’s minnows are now slowly turning of age. A team which beat New Zealand, India and now South Africa is by no means a minnow. And Australia is no Holy Grail. It would one day go the way West Indies went.. down into history. History has a small memory, especially for the Bullies .. we don’t remember Hitler, though we remember Gandhi who won the world with love. We even remember Christ, Mohammad, Ram and Buddha who were here eons ago. We have fast forgotten who Border was, though we continue to remember Don Bradman, and Gary Sobers.. as cricketing Greats! Hopefully, now Ponting can concentrate on his own game, lest he be fogotten..

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