This is always a very interesting prediction.

India batting first scored an average of 271 and 256 when batting second in 2007. Whereas Sri Lanka when batting first scored an average of 254 and 241 when they batted second.

Going by this, would India always win, Simple?

No!

The interesting fact is their bowling. Sri Lanka opposition is likely to be 213 all out on an average. Whereas Indian opposition scores 266 for 6.

India’s weak point is it’s bowling whereas Sri Lanka’s strong point is it’s bowling. Sri Lankans are the most stingy bowlers and to cap it, they take wickets as well.

So, it means that if you average the bowling and batting performances the scores could be like this:

Sri Lanka bats first, it is more likely to win. The likely score bands:

Sri Lanka: 260/261 (based on the average score by Sri Lanka batting first in an away series in 2007, and the average score based on the players playing in this match.)

India: 235/284 (based on the average score by india batting second in 2007 in an away series, and the average score based on the players playing in this match. Actually with Yuvraj not playing the average scores may go down by another 6-10 runs)

60% lieklihood that Sri Lanka may win by a margin of 10-25 runs, or 40% likely India can win by about 3-5 wickets

If India bats first, it has a 70% chance of victory. The likely score bands:

India: 242/284 (based on the average score by india batting first in 2007 in an away series, and the average score based on the players playing in this match. Actually with Yuvraj not playing the average scores may go down by another 6-10 runs)
Sri Lanka: 254/261 (based on the average score by Sri Lanka batting second in an away series in 2007, and the average score based on the players playing in this match.)

70% likelihood that India may win by 20-30 runs, else 30% likely Sri Lanka may win by 4-6 wickets.

So overall prediction is 55% India and 45% Sri Lanka

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This entry was posted on Monday, February 4th, 2008 at 7:10 pm and is filed under Matches, Teams, Betting, Strategy and Rules, India, Sri Lanka. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.