I am a fan of Sri Lankan team and their style so this is going to be difficult since the present team is not upto the mark. Predictionwise, this is a comparatively easier prediction. Since Australia are such huge scorers especially on home grounds and Sri Lanka are such a sloppy scorer overseas in recent times, you can always see a one sided match happening most of the times. Murali is bowling in Australia after a long hiatus (he didn’t come here for long till he recently came for the test series) so he can certainly perform better than what he does against India. However, the team doesn’t pack much surprise, with no one except Jayasuriya can even score at a decent enough rate, and Jayasuriya has been batting as if he’s given up on the team. Anyway, if it’s Murali or Jayasuriya’s day they can make a fight of it, however others would need to play an excellent supporting role even to have an outside chance at winning.
If Australia bats first, it will be 95% an Australian victory. The likely score bands:
Australia: 273/325 (based on the average score by Australia batting first in a home series in 2007, and the average score based on the players playing in this match.)
Sri Lanka: 241/256 (based on the average score by Sri Lanka batting second in an away series in 2007, and the average score based on the players playing in this match.)
Australia may win by a margin of 15-70 runs in 95% cases. With 5% probability of a 2-5 wicket loss.
If Sri Lanka bats first, it has a 15% chance of victory. The likely score bands:
Sri Lanka: 250/260 (based on the average score by Sri Lanka batting first in an away series in 2007, and the average score based on the players playing in this match.)
Australia: 273/298 (based on the average score by Australia batting second in a home series in 2007, and the average score based on the players playing in this match.)
Sri Lanka may win by 5-10 runs in 15% cases, else Australia may win by 3-6 wickets in 90% cases.
So overall, the chances of Sri Lanka winning are just about 10%.
Do note that on different individual days the scores can vary highly, but the average impact could remain near to this.
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