If Australia bats first, it is most likely to win. The likely score bands:
Australia: 273/294 (based on the average score by Australia batting first in a home series in 2007, and the average score based on the players playing in this match. If Hopes is played, Australia are likely to score an extra 15-20 runs)
India: 256/264 (based on the average score by india batting second in 2007 in an away series, and the average score based on the players playing in this match. Actually with Yuvraj not playing the average scores may go down by another 6-10 runs)
Australia may win by a margin of 10-40 runs. But if Hopes plays and Yuvraj doesn’t play, the margin may increase by another 25 runs.
If India bats first, it has a 55% chance of victory. The likely score bands:
India: 264/271 (based on the average score by india batting first in 2007 in an away series, and the average score based on the players playing in this match. Actually with Yuvraj not playing the average scores may go down by another 6-10 runs)
Australia: 260/273 (based on the average score by Australia batting second in a home series in 2007, and the average score based on the players playing in this match. If Hopes is played, Australia are likely to score an extra 15-20 runs)
India may win by 5-10 runs, else Australia may win by 4-6 wickets. But if Hopes plays and Yuvraj doesn’t play, the margin may increase by another 25 runs, which means that the chance of India winning would be just about 25% and Australia may win by 5-7 wickets.
Another important fact:
Indian team’s score based on statistics of present team is 256 for 9 (without Yuvraj), and they are likely to restrict an average opposition to 266 for 7. So the present team is likely to win 40% of matches they play
Australian team’s score based on statistics of present team is 296 for 5 (with Hopes), and they are likely to restrict an average opposition to 243 for 9. So the present team is likely to win 80% of the matches they play.
This is solely based on statistical analysis of the author and has no derivation from any existing article or piece of work.
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February 3rd, 2008 at 3:18 am
India announced Manoj Tiwary and Suresh Raina in the team, and left out Karthik (mostly based on T20 performance) and Yuvraj (not well). In bowling they stuck to the current form in Test Series. Australia is playing Noffke (based on his T20 performance) and Haddin (to settle him for future as a wicketkeeper). This doesn’t affect the estimates much since new players cannot be considered in estimates and Haddins scoring rate matches the average Australian scoring rate.
February 3rd, 2008 at 6:10 pm
Well the match was a low scoring affair with India in trouble once again scoring just 194 in 45 overs. However, rain saved the day for them, with Australia at 50 for 3 however looking set to score the remaining 91 runs in 18.4 overs when rain interrupted for the final time during a rain marred day. Honours shared. India should play Praveen Kumar next time, and hope Yuvraj recovers fast. Raina may get a look in next time.
February 4th, 2008 at 3:02 am
I need to correct the score predictions, since I didn’t include the extras at some places. So assuming about 20 extras on an average and 10 extra if we only take into account no-balls and wides. So the revised score estimates are:
Australia bats first, it is most likely to win. The likely score bands:
Australia: 273/325 (based on the average score by Australia batting first in a home series in 2007, and the average score based on the players playing in this match.
India: 256/284 (based on the average score by India batting second in 2007 in an away series, and the average score based on the players playing in this match. Actually with Yuvraj not playing the average scores may go down by another 6-10 runs)
Australia may win by a margin of 10-70 runs in 90% cases. With 10% probability of a 2-5 wicket loss.
If India bats first, it has a 30% chance of victory. The likely score bands:
India: 271/284 (based on the average score by India batting first in 2007 in an away series, and the average score based on the players playing in this match. Actually with Yuvraj not playing the average scores may go down by another 6-10 runs)
Australia: 273/298 (based on the average score by Australia batting second in a home series in 2007, and the average score based on the players playing in this match.)
India may win by 5-10 runs in 30% cases, else Australia may win by 3-6 wickets in 70% cases. (the probability has been altered since the impact of extras has increased the Australian chances).
Do note that on individual days the scores can vary highly but the average impact could remain near to this.
February 9th, 2008 at 6:16 pm
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