Well everyone has written off Pakistan after being beaten on the “Day of Shocks”, at the moment, though even India is near to extinction, so the ICC – Sponsors are the ones who should worry as a lot of money is riding on India.
India has just a 50-50 chance of beating Sri Lanka (though realistically it may be well below that). Also, presuming that Sri Lanka would beat Bangladesh (let us say an 80-20 chance). In case that happens you would have India tied with Bangladesh on run rate (we’ve presumed bermuda is beaten by all – a fair assumption). So in that case India may qualify. In case Bangladesh beats Sri Lanka then an Indian win over Sri Lanka would get them in directly. So fairly, India has about 30-40 chance of making it to the next round.
Given that Sri Lanka has a high run rate, it should be hoped that they beat Bangladesh by a high margin, otherwise India would need to maul Sri Lanka by a high margin (this is difficult though on a given day it can happen either way. usually a tense India is never able to use the word maul as they tread very carefully, like they did against Bangladesh).
All the credit is with Bangladesh, and after beating New Zealand and India back to back they really deserve to be in the next round. It is a shame that one of these 3 teams would have to go back. And least likely Sri Lanka. So it is between India and Bangladesh, with Bangladesh having a 60-40 chance right now.